US Rates: Commentary, Charts, and Research from Bayesian Edge

US Inflation

(1) PCE Core Rate of Inflation

The Fed's dual mandate focuses on encouraging full employment and price stability. The Fed has adopted a 2% inflation target based on its stated view that inflation is largely a monetary phenomenon and the Fed can influence inflation over the longer-term through its interest rate, balance sheet, and related policies.

The Fed's favored inflation metric is the price index derived from personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, excluding food and energy (i.e., the PCE core inflation rate).

PCE Core Inflation


PCE Core Inflation MoM


PCE Headline Inflation


(2) Headline CPI and the Shelter Component

CPI Inflation


CPI Inflation ex OER


Shelter Inflation

(3) Federal Funds Rate and Inflation

Fed Inflation Target


Inflation Long-Run